Will Strong Data Center Growth Push Up AMD's Stock Higher in 2026?

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares have increased by 70.3% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 24.7% return and the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's 68.8% appreciation [1] - The growth is driven by strong demand for EPYC processors and Instinct MI350 and MI300 series GPUs, with expectations for double-digit growth in Data Center revenues in Q4 2025 [1][9] Data Center Market Potential - AMD anticipates the data center total addressable market to reach $1 trillion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% from an estimated $200 billion in 2025 [2] - Data center AI revenues are projected to grow at a CAGR of over 80% in the next 3-5 years, supported by demand for Instinct GPUs and a growing customer base [2] Product Adoption and Partnerships - The adoption of fifth-generation EPYC processors is strong, with hyperscalers launching over 160 EPYC-powered instances in Q3 2025, marking a 50% year-over-year increase in public EPYC cloud instances [4] - New partnerships and product launches, such as Oracle's MI355X instances and the adoption of MI300 series by companies like IBM and OpenAI, are expected to drive further growth [5][6] Financial Performance and Guidance - AMD expects Q4 2025 revenues to be around $9.6 billion, reflecting approximately 25% year-over-year growth and 4% sequential growth [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 revenues is $9.64 billion, indicating a 25.9% increase from the previous year [8] Competitive Landscape - AMD faces significant competition from NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Intel, with NVIDIA's AI and high-performance computing growth posing a particular challenge [10][11] - Over the past year, AMD shares have underperformed compared to Broadcom and Intel, which returned 121.7% and 101.3%, respectively, while AMD outperformed NVIDIA's 32.5% return [12] Valuation Concerns - AMD's stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 8.49X compared to the sector's 6.79X, indicating a stretched valuation [16] - The company's near-term prospects are viewed as dull due to competitive pressures and valuation concerns [19]