市场博弈美联储降息

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has implemented two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a further 25 basis point cut in December, with major investment banks predicting a "hawkish cut" approach [4][5] - The recent labor market data shows a significant decline in private sector employment, indicating structural weaknesses, while inflation pressures are easing [4][5] Group 2 - The easing of external monetary policy constraints will provide China with more operational space for its monetary policy, although the core principle of "taking the lead" will remain unchanged [6][7] - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential due to the Fed's rate cuts is expected to support the Chinese yuan, with potential for further policy rate reductions in China [6][7] - The impact of the Fed's rate cuts on global markets will vary, with potential benefits for equity markets and risks for bond markets due to internal factors [8][10]