白银强势迈入 “60美元时代” 交易所提保扩板抑投机

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has officially entered the $60 era, with COMEX silver futures breaking through the $60/oz mark and reaching a high of $62.14/oz, while spot silver hit a record of $61.6/oz, reflecting a significant increase in demand and speculation in the market [1][2]. Price Movement - As of December 10, COMEX silver futures have accumulated a rise of over 109% year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase during the same period, indicating a strong bullish trend in the silver market [1]. - The Shanghai silver futures price has also seen a cumulative increase of 24%, surpassing 14,419 yuan/kg [2]. Market Dynamics - Speculative funds have heavily entered the market, contributing to the strong performance of silver, while exchanges have raised margin requirements and price limits to manage volatility [3]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to two main factors: the inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list and an increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 40% to 95% [3]. Supply and Inventory - Global silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver inventory dropping from 16,500 tons to 14,200 tons in two months, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - As of the end of November, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was at 559 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange inventory was at 716 tons, both at near 10-year lows [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the silver price may continue to rise due to ongoing supply tightness and potential trade policy restrictions, which could allow silver to outperform gold [4]. - However, there is a need to monitor the delivery situation of COMEX silver in December and changes in inventory levels, as any easing of supply constraints could lead to significant price volatility [4]. - Standard Chartered Bank notes that while leasing rates remain high, they have decreased from October levels, and the increase in available inventory in London suggests that market tightness is easing, potentially leading to high-level fluctuations in silver prices [5].