Core Viewpoint - The Deutsche Bank report indicates that Latin American currencies are expected to perform strongly in 2025 due to high real interest rates and favorable external conditions, with Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru achieving double-digit returns. However, a reversal of this trend is anticipated in 2026 as focus shifts to national fiscal, external balance, and political fundamentals [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - In 2025, currencies of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru are projected to achieve double-digit returns due to favorable conditions [1] - The report forecasts specific exchange rate targets for the end of 2026: Brazilian Real at 5.2, Colombian Peso at 4000, Chilean Peso at 870, Peruvian Sol at 3.30, and Mexican Peso at 18 [1] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Brazil and Colombia face the highest risks due to significant macroeconomic imbalances, with potential erosion of currency protection from fiscal deterioration or electoral uncertainties [1] - Brazil's high uncertainty from the October elections may lead to increased fiscal spending and volatility [1] - Colombia may enter a rate hike cycle due to unanchored inflation expectations and fiscal deterioration [1] Group 3: Individual Currency Outlook - Chilean Peso is expected to gradually appreciate due to potential policy adjustments such as lowering corporate taxes, deregulation, and fiscal consolidation [1] - Peruvian currency appreciation is limited due to high valuation [1] - Mexican Peso is likely to remain strong due to solid access to the U.S. market [1]
政策变革预期支撑智利比索走强
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan·2025-12-10 18:23