昔日“资本宠儿”市值缩水90% 奈雪的茶高端之路为何难行？

Core Viewpoint - Naixue Tea, known as the "first stock of new tea drinks," is facing significant operational challenges after more than four years since its listing in Hong Kong, with its stock price dropping over 90% and market capitalization falling below 2 billion HKD [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, Naixue recorded a slight profit of 0.13 billion CNY, but it turned to a substantial loss of 9.17 billion CNY in 2024, with a narrowed loss of 1.17 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about its ongoing profitability [2] - The company's financial struggles are attributed to intensified industry competition, store closure plans, and losses from joint ventures and investment projects [2] Business Model and Cost Structure - Naixue's large store model has significantly increased operational costs, with store sizes typically ranging from 80 to 200 square meters, leading to higher rent expenses [3] - From 2021 to 2022, the company's right-of-use asset depreciation exceeded 400 million CNY annually, accounting for about 10% of revenue [3] - Material costs were approximately 740 million CNY in the first half of 2025, representing 34.1% of total revenue, with overall costs (materials, personnel, rent, and delivery) nearing 80% of income [4] Strategic Challenges - Naixue's high pricing strategy, with average customer prices around 42.9 CNY to 43.3 CNY from 2018 to 2020, is becoming less viable as consumer preferences shift towards more affordable options [6] - The company has been slow to adopt a franchise model, which has limited its market expansion compared to competitors who have successfully penetrated lower-tier cities [7] Recent Adjustments and Future Outlook - Naixue has initiated several strategic adjustments, including reducing store sizes and relaxing franchise policies to enhance market penetration and cost efficiency [8] - The average daily sales per store reached 7,600 CNY in the first half of 2025, with a 4.1% year-on-year increase, and the adjusted net loss decreased by 73.1% to 1.179 billion CNY [9] - Despite some improvements, Naixue faces ongoing challenges, including food safety complaints and the need to strengthen its supply chain management to support its franchise model [9][10]