证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

喜茶方面表示，去年7月，喜茶"超级植物茶"正式上线，首款羽衣纤体瓶上线首月售出超350万杯。截至 2024年12月底，"超级植物茶"系列累计售出超3700万杯，成为行业2024年现象级大单品。 喜茶方面表示，2024年起，喜茶在这两个上游基地展开订单农业的合作模式探索，以强化对上游产地种 植端过程管理，从而提升鲜果品质、降低食安风险，赋能农户提质增收。以此为基础，喜茶已在全国布 局超万亩订单农业合作果园，分布于辽宁至海南的全国优质产区。 除了喜茶外，港股"新茶饮第一股"奈雪的茶带来了招牌"霸气鲜果茶"系列，同时也有茉莉初雪奶茶、纯 茶及热销烘焙产品，以及哈利波特、三丽鸥、飞天小女警、小王子等知名IP的人气联名周边。 奈雪的茶对记者表示，目前奈雪在全球拥有近2000家门店，会员数超过1亿人。 4月13日，第五届中国国际消费品博览会(下称"消博会")在海南国际会展中心开幕。本届消博会以"共享 开放机遇，共创美好生活"为主题，吸引来自71个国家和地区的4100余个品牌参展，65家世界500强及行 业龙头企业同台竞技，规模再创新高。 "在周边方面，奈雪从2015年创立以来，跟非常多知名国际IP、艺术、动漫类IP都展开 ...

出品丨搜狐财经 作者丨闫思羽 编辑丨李文贤 一年关闭近350家门店，2024年巨亏9.17亿元，近日公布业绩的奈雪的茶深陷多重危机。 四年间，这家以"中国星巴克"为愿景的企业市值蒸发90%，资本方太盟、天图接连减持套现，核心成员离职。 香颂资本董事长沈萌表示，资方减持和董事退出确实与企业的业绩有关，但不是唯一相关性。 2024年财报显示，奈雪的茶再度陷入巨额亏损。 公司全年营收49.21亿元，同比下滑4.7%；净利润亏损达9.17亿元。从2021年上市至今，奈雪的茶仅在2023年短暂恢复盈利1300万元。 奈雪在财报中表示，2024年度消费市场表现疲弱，而现制茶饮行业竞争加剧，导致直营门店的收益及门店经营利润率产生波动。另外，闭店损失也进一步侵 蚀了公司的利润。 经营数据显示，奈雪直营门店数量从2023年的1574家缩减至1453家，净减少121家。 曾经的"新式茶饮明星"如今面临严峻挑战，其大店模式与直营策略的弊端逐渐暴露。 中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬表示，奈雪亏钱的根本原因就是奈雪品牌力不足以支撑其大店模式，奈雪的整个产品矩阵、团队，都无法支撑它做大店。 当大店模式遭遇消费降级，当直营策略碰上加盟狂潮，这个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with several brands reporting impressive revenue figures for 2024, while others face challenges due to differing business models and market strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mixue Ice Cream and Tea is the only tea company to surpass 20 billion yuan in revenue, achieving 20.30 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 24.83 billion yuan for 2024 [1][2]. - Bawang Chaji follows with a revenue of 12.41 billion yuan in 2023, marking a substantial increase from 4.92 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 12.41 billion yuan for 2024 [2][3]. - Gu Ming reported a revenue of 8.79 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations to reach 8.79 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - Nayuki Tea, primarily operating under a direct sales model, reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.7% from the previous year, and a net loss of 919 million yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Business Models - The top five tea brands in China, including Mixue, Gu Ming, and Cha Baidao, primarily operate on a franchise model, which allows for rapid expansion and lower operational costs [1][4]. - Nayuki Tea's direct sales model results in higher operational costs and challenges in profitability, as it relies on larger store sizes and a higher number of employees [4][5]. - Bawang Chaji's revenue growth is attributed to an increase in store count from 3,511 to 6,440, and a significant rise in average monthly sales per store [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The new tea beverage market is showing signs of slowing growth domestically, with international expansion becoming a key focus for brands like Mixue, which has opened 4,895 stores outside of China [5]. - The per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China and Southeast Asia is expected to double by 2028, indicating substantial growth potential in these markets [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in profit due to store closures and investment losses, with a focus on developing new store formats [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net profit loss of 917 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [5][6] - The company is exploring "green" store formats and aims to reduce costs and improve efficiency to achieve profitability [9] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue from direct stores, bottled beverages, and other businesses in 2024 was 4.16 billion, 293 million, and 469 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.4%, +10.0%, and +128.0% [6] - The revenue breakdown by product shows that ready-to-drink tea, baked goods, bottled beverages, and other products generated 3.39 billion, 528 million, 293 million, and 711 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.3%, -25.3%, +10.0%, and +72.2% [6] Store Count and Adjustments - As of the end of 2024, the company had 1,453 direct stores, a decrease of 121 stores year-on-year [7] - The company opened its franchise model in July 2023, resulting in a net increase of 264 franchise stores to a total of 345 by the end of 2024 [7] Cost Structure - In 2024, the adjusted net profit margin was -18.7%, a decrease of 19.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Employee costs represented 29.2% of revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company plans to transform 200-300 stores in first-tier and new first-tier cities by 2025 to meet consumer demand and enhance profitability [9] - The company has achieved profitability in the Thai market and plans to open over 20 stores in 2025, while expanding cautiously in the U.S. market [9] Financial Forecasts - The company's projected net profit for 2025 is -165 million yuan, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [11] - Revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 0.7% in 2025, followed by 6.2% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Naixue Tea is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in performance and market value, alongside frequent executive departures, leading to increased uncertainty for the company [1][5]. Group 1: Executive Departures - Non-executive director Ma Yanjun has resigned due to other work commitments, effective immediately [1]. - Ma Yanjun was appointed as a non-executive director on May 17, 2024, representing PAG, a major investor in Naixue Tea, which invested $100 million during the company's Series C funding round in 2021 [3]. - The departure of Ma Yanjun may be linked to PAG's reduction in shareholding and potential strategic shifts within the company [3]. - Two other directors, Wei Guoxing and executive director Deng Bin, have also resigned, indicating a broader trend of executive turnover that reflects investor sentiment towards Naixue's performance [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Naixue reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.7% from 5.164 billion yuan in 2023, with a net loss of 917 million yuan [5]. - The company has struggled with profitability, briefly achieving a profit of 13 million yuan in 2023 but returning to significant losses in 2024 [5]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a weak consumer market and intensified competition in the ready-to-drink tea sector, affecting store revenue and profit margins [5][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The number of Naixue's direct-operated stores decreased from 1,574 in 2023 to 1,453 in 2024, a reduction of 121 stores [6]. - Key operational metrics have declined, with the average order value dropping from 29.6 yuan to 26.7 yuan and daily order volume falling from 344.3 to 270.5 [6]. - Naixue's market position has weakened significantly, with its stock price plummeting to 1.1 HKD, leading to a market capitalization of less than 2 billion HKD [6]. - Competitors in the new tea beverage industry, such as Mixue Ice City and others, have reported substantial profits, highlighting Naixue's struggles in comparison [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 917.29 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 13.22 million yuan in 2023. The adjusted net loss was 919 million yuan, down from an adjusted net profit of 21 million yuan in 2023 [7] - The company is actively exploring new business models, including the introduction of Green stores and expansion into overseas markets such as Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia [7] - The company has reduced the number of direct-operated stores by 121, resulting in impairment losses. As of the end of 2024, there were 1,453 direct-operated stores [7] - The average customer transaction value decreased by 9.8% to 26.7 yuan, and the average daily order volume per store fell by 21.4% to 270.5 orders [7] - The company anticipates a revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5.3% for the following years [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 5.164 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 4.921 billion yuan for 2024, and expected revenues of 5.182 billion yuan in 2025, 5.268 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.451 billion yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is -127.96 million yuan, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching a net profit of 56.48 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 308.89 for 2026 and 28.59 for 2027 [1][8] - The company’s total assets are estimated at 6.165 billion yuan for 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.48% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 917.29 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 13.22 million yuan in 2023 [7] - The company is actively exploring new business models and has seen a significant increase in franchise operations, with 345 franchise stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 264 stores [7] - The company aims to focus on a health-oriented strategy and explore new store formats, such as "Green stores," in 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 5.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33% [1] - The forecast for total revenue is adjusted to 5.182 billion yuan for 2025 and 5.268 billion yuan for 2026, with expected growth rates of 5.29% and 1.66% respectively [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a loss of 127.96 million yuan, with a projected recovery to a profit of 5.23 million yuan in 2026 and 56.48 million yuan in 2027 [7] - The company’s average customer transaction value decreased by 9.8% to 26.7 yuan, and the average daily order volume per store fell by 21.4% to 270.5 orders [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1.04 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 1.776 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 0.45, indicating the stock is trading below its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.48%, suggesting a moderate level of leverage [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the innovative applications of tea and the introduction of a new product by Nayuki Tea, "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha," which combines black sugar pearls with matcha milk to create a unique ice slush texture, praised by consumers as "liquid Gelato" [1][2][3] Product Innovation - Nayuki Tea has launched the "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha," which mixes black sugar pearls, matcha milk, and ice to create a slush-like texture, transforming traditional large pearls into "Amber Crushed Diamonds" that are easier to consume while maintaining the classic flavor [2][3] - The product aims to enhance consumer experience without completely overturning traditional perceptions, similar to Starbucks' adaptation of classic beverages into new textures [4] Ingredient Quality - The new series utilizes Zhejiang Jing Mountain matcha, which contains 1.353% total theanine per 100g of matcha powder, showcasing Nayuki's deep understanding of this superfood [5] - The matcha undergoes a meticulous production process, including seven steps of processing and six separation techniques to ensure purity and quality [5] Market Performance - The "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha" achieved the top sales position nationwide on its launch day, with high visual appeal contributing to its popularity on social media platforms, generating over 3 million discussions [6] Strategic Vision - Nayuki's "Green Plan" aims to promote health-oriented products, with the Jing Mountain matcha being the seventh superfood application, following other health-focused ingredients from various regions [7] - The Chinese new-style tea beverage market is projected to reach 374.93 billion yuan by 2025, with the health tea market expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Nayuki [7]