Tesla's New Bull Case: FSD, Brand Recovery, & China Strength

Core Insights - Tesla is poised for a strong performance in 2026 due to three main catalysts: the advancement of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), recovery of brand reputation, and improved demand in China [1][6][11] Group 1: Unsupervised FSD Development - Tesla's robotaxi program has launched in two cities, Austin and San Francisco, and is expected to catch up to Waymo due to its scalability and lower costs [2] - There is a 77% probability that Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD before 2026, according to betting market data [3] - Elon Musk has expressed confidence in Tesla's robotaxi future, stating that unsupervised FSD is "pretty much solved" [5] Group 2: Brand Reputation Recovery - Following a turbulent period in early 2025, Tesla's brand sentiment has significantly improved, with net purchase intent and brand trust fully recovering [6][7] - The recovery is attributed to the passage of time since the brand's challenges, allowing for a rebound in consumer confidence [7] Group 3: Demand in China - Tesla has seen a turnaround in its Chinese market, with the Model Y becoming the top-selling vehicle in the country [8][10] - The Model S is completely sold out in China, indicating strong demand despite competition from local automakers [10]