Down 8% in December, Investors Should Wait Until Late January to Buy Harley-Davidson

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson's stock has significantly declined, losing over 25% in 2025 and 70% from its all-time high in 2006, despite a potential boost from the White House's push for American manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Harley-Davidson's share price is down over 25% in 2025, including an 8% drop since early December [2]. - The stock has lost 70% of its value from its peak of $75.87 in November 2006 [2]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Market Conditions - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index increased slightly from 51.0 in November to 53.3 in December, but is down from 71.7 at the beginning of 2025 [4]. - Consumer confidence remains low, which negatively impacts businesses reliant on discretionary income [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Harley-Davidson's global retail motorcycle sales by unit volume decreased by 6%, with a 5% decline in North America, but motorcycle sales revenue increased by 34% to $822 million [6]. - Global shipments rose by 33%, with U.S. shipments increasing by 62%, indicating a stronger market [6]. - The company's operating profit was only 2% lower than the previous year, despite rising input and tariff-related costs [7]. - Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) saw a remarkable 472% increase in operating profits to $439 million [7]. Group 4: Strategic Moves - HDFS sold over $5 billion of its receivables to KKR & Co. and Pimco at a premium to par during the third quarter, marking a significant strategic shift [8].