2026年海外宏观经济年度报告：离不开的宽松-兴业

Group 1 - The core theme for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026 revolves around "the landing of Federal Reserve easing, structural differentiation in the US economy, global policy games, and asset revaluation" [1] - The US economy exhibits a "top-heavy" prosperity characteristic, heavily reliant on high-income group consumption and AI-related investments, with the top 10% of high-income individuals contributing nearly half of the consumption expenditure [1][20] - AI investment from the four major tech giants is expected to support about one-third of economic growth in 2026, but the increasing reliance on debt financing for AI investments raises systemic vulnerabilities, with potential economic recession risks if a bubble bursts [1][66] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a key focus for 2026, driven by high fiscal interest expenditures and the need for a supportive environment for AI-related financial risks [2][11] - The liquidity environment is crucial for major asset classes, with expectations of a downward trend for the US dollar and a favorable environment for risk assets if the economy does not collapse [2][10] - Gold is favored among commodities due to the weak dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, while industrial metals depend on the recovery pace of global demand [2][10] Group 3 - Trump's policies focus on "tariff revenue and manufacturing return," attempting to use tariffs to fill fiscal gaps and create space for tax cuts, while securing $1.5 trillion in investments from Europe and Japan over the next three years [1][42] - The fiscal pressure is being redistributed globally, with Europe and Japan increasing fiscal expansion to counter trade and security pressures, leading to a shift in sovereign debt risks from the US to these regions [1][58] - The ongoing fiscal expansion in Europe and Japan has resulted in rising long-term bond yields in these regions, while US bonds have outperformed [1][58]