国金证券：拥抱千帆星座基建爆发期 锁定高壁垒组件卖水人

Core Insights - The core investment logic for China's commercial aerospace sector is to embrace the explosive growth of satellite constellation infrastructure and focus on high-barrier component suppliers, similar to SpaceX's position from 2018 to 2020 [1] - SpaceX is not a traditional aerospace manufacturer but a monopolist in space logistics and infrastructure, applying first principles to disrupt conventional beliefs about rocket costs and usage [1] Cost Barriers - SpaceX has achieved unmatched reusability economics, reducing marginal launch costs to nearly $15 million, with gross margins reaching around 68% after five reuse missions [2] - This cost structure provides SpaceX with pricing power against traditional aerospace giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, creating a scale effect barrier that competitors cannot replicate [2] Manufacturing Barriers - SpaceX has vertically integrated over 80% of its production, including engines, structures, and software, leading to high iteration speed and cost control [2] - This integration allows SpaceX to update spacecraft at a consumer electronics pace, transitioning rocket manufacturing to an assembly line model [2] Customer Barriers - SpaceX has developed a deep strategic symbiosis with the U.S. government, transforming its relationship from a simple contractor to a strategic partner [2] - Long-term, high-value contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense provide substantial subsidies for SpaceX's core R&D, particularly for Starship [2] Growth Curves - SpaceX's value should not be compared to traditional military contractors but viewed as a combination of three distinct business life cycles: 1. Launch services as a cash cow with high market share and profitability [3] 2. Starlink's exponential growth, transitioning from B2B manufacturing to C2C service with recurring revenue characteristics [3] 3. Starship as a disruptive option for future space economy infrastructure, unlocking potential trillion-dollar markets [3]