交易员加码押注欧洲央行转向：2026年加息概率已升至50%

Core Insights - The currency market's expectations regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy stance are undergoing a significant shift, with traders now anticipating a 50% probability of interest rate hikes by the end of 2026 [1] - According to swap market data, traders expect an interest rate increase of 12.5 basis points by December 2026, a notable rise from 7 basis points earlier in the week [1] - This rapid adjustment in expectations is attributed to hawkish comments made by ECB Executive Isabel Schnabel, prompting a reassessment of the policy path [1] - Traders have completely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts in 2026, indicating a fundamental shift in market expectations from a previously anticipated continuation of accommodative policies [1] - Current pricing suggests that investors believe the ECB is more likely to maintain or even tighten monetary policy rather than further loosen it [1] Market Impact - This shift in expectations has directly impacted the European bond market, leading to a decline in German government bond prices [1] - The mid-section of the yield curve has been particularly affected, with the 5-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 2.52% and the 10-year yield increasing by 3.6 basis points to 2.88% [1]