凌晨降息 “靴子”落地 特朗普：幅度太小！鲍威尔重磅发声！白银再创新高

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and the sixth since September 2024, amid concerns over economic uncertainty and rising inflation [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [2]. - The decision to lower the federal funds rate was influenced by increased downside risks to employment and changing risk balances [2]. - The cumulative reduction in policy rates over the past three meetings amounts to 0.75 percentage points [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The median forecast for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is projected at 2.9% for this year and 2.4% for next year [7]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased, and job growth has significantly slowed, with artificial intelligence potentially contributing to employment weakness [8]. - The current inflation rate is above the Fed's 2% target, primarily due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up by 1.05%, the Nasdaq by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 by 0.67% [12]. - Precious metals experienced price increases, with spot gold rising by 0.46% and silver prices reaching historical highs [13][16]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut by January 2026, with a 40.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March 2024 [3]. - The market anticipates that the next rate cut may be delayed until April of next year, which has been a factor in suppressing gold prices [19]. - Analysts suggest that the current macroeconomic environment, supply-demand dynamics, and market sentiment are driving silver prices upward, with expectations of continued volatility [18][20].