美联储如期再降息25基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，启动RMP买短债400亿

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time by 25 basis points, marking the first instance of three dissenting votes on a rate decision since 2019, indicating significant internal disagreement among policymakers [1][5][7]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate has been reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of the previous year [5][7]. - The decision to lower rates was widely anticipated by the market, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5]. Internal Disagreement - The recent meeting revealed the largest dissent among Federal Reserve officials in 37 years, with three members voting against the rate cut, reflecting a significant divide on concerns regarding inflation and employment [5][6][7]. - The dissenting votes came from Stephen Miran, Austan Goolsbee, and Jeffrey Schmid, with Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut [7][8]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts upward for this year and the next three years, with the most significant increase of 0.5 percentage points for the upcoming year [4][19]. - There has been a slight downward adjustment in inflation and unemployment rate expectations for the next two years, indicating a more optimistic view on inflation trends [19][22]. Future Rate Guidance - The statement now includes a more explicit consideration of the "magnitude and timing" of future rate cuts, suggesting that any further reductions will be approached with greater caution [3][9][10]. - The median projections for the federal funds rate indicate that the Fed expects to lower rates once in the next two years, with a more dovish outlook compared to previous forecasts [20][21]. Market Operations - The Federal Reserve plans to begin purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities to maintain adequate reserve levels in the banking system, starting this week [3][13]. - This move is part of a broader strategy to manage liquidity in the financial markets, especially as year-end pressures typically arise [11][13].