美联储明年1月可能按兵不动，下一次降息或在明年3月份

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate changes in January 2024, with the next potential rate cut anticipated in March 2024, following a 25 basis point cut in December 2023 [1] - The report highlights that the number of officials opposing further rate cuts has increased to two, indicating a higher threshold for future rate reductions [1] - The Fed's announcement to initiate short-term Treasury bill purchases is aimed at alleviating market concerns, while the previously priced-in "hawkish rate cut" expectations have reversed, leading to increased market volatility [1] Group 2 - The report from Zhongjin indicates that the demand for the energy storage industry will remain robust in 2026, driven by ongoing global energy transition trends and the increasing reliance on energy storage for wind and solar installations [2] - Major markets such as China, the US, and Europe are expected to see significant tendering and project planning for large-scale energy storage, with emerging markets like the Middle East, India, Australia, and Chile also showing strong demand [2] - The demand for household and commercial energy storage remains strong, as the logic of electricity shortages in emerging markets continues to persist [2] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities expresses cautious optimism regarding the rebound of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), attributing the recent increase since September to three main factors: a reduction in the drag from rising food prices, a recovery in some consumer goods and service prices due to domestic demand policies, and rising gold prices affecting jewelry costs [3] - Future CPI increases will depend on the alleviation of supply constraints in the vegetable market and the ongoing drag from pork prices, which may lead to a slight increase in food CPI pressure [3] - The report emphasizes the need for expanded national subsidies and strengthened policies related to service consumption to sustain the recovery of consumer goods and service prices, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" focus on enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods and services [3]