贵金属价格涨势难言结束

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase of over 100% as of December 9, driven by strong investment demand and supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is projected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, is expected to grow, with silver usage in the photovoltaic industry projected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, significantly increasing its share of total silver demand [4] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks buying 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, held about 1,049.11 tons of gold as of December 8, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year increase despite a slight decline from October [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could sustain upward momentum in gold prices, although there are concerns about a possible correction following interest rate cuts [1][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine confidence in the dollar, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of slowing, with the hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - Investors are currently favoring safer assets, moving funds from riskier equities and precious metals into money market funds in response to market uncertainties [7]