Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices have shown strong performance this year, with significant fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies [1] - The first quarter saw an initial price increase, followed by a more pronounced rise in mid-April, culminating in accelerated growth by year-end [1] - Despite macroeconomic disturbances, the market's perception of copper's financial attributes has been evident, particularly in response to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Copper concentrate supply is expected to remain tight in 2025, with negative processing fees reported since late January, reaching -40 USD/ton by April [2] - Operational instability in overseas mines, such as the earthquake in Chile affecting Codelco's El Teniente mine, has contributed to reduced production forecasts from several mining companies [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China may further restrict copper concentrate supply, especially if smelter by-product prices weaken [2] Group 3: End-User Demand - Domestic cable manufacturers have shown varied production patterns, with limited seasonal demand for copper, primarily maintaining a just-in-time procurement approach [3] - The air conditioning sector has benefited from a trade-in policy, leading to increased production in the first quarter compared to previous years [3] - The automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, is expected to continue its rapid growth, providing strong support for copper demand [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with stable growth anticipated in copper demand for electricity, although a decline is expected in the air conditioning sector [4] - The automotive industry, especially in the context of electric vehicles, is projected to remain a significant driver of copper demand [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to experience a volatile trend, with initial increases followed by potential declines [5]
铜价 明年走势或先扬后抑
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-12-11 01:00