How Has Costco (COST) Stock Done for Investors?

Core Viewpoint - Costco's recent stock performance has lagged behind the broader market, but a deeper analysis reveals that it has outperformed over the long term [1]. Short-Term Performance - An investment of $10,000 in Costco stock six months ago would have decreased to $8,769, reflecting a total return of negative-12.3% and an annualized return of negative-22.8% [2]. - In contrast, a similar investment in the S&P 500 index would have grown to $11,480, while the Nasdaq-100 index would have reached $11,820 [3]. Long-Term Performance - Over a three-year period, Costco investors have outperformed the S&P 500, although keeping pace with the Nasdaq-100 during the AI boom has been more challenging [5]. - If the investment in Costco stock was held for five years, it would have outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 [8]. Valuation and Economic Environment - Costco's stock was trading at a high valuation of 95 times free cash flow (FCF) in spring 2025, but has since decreased to a multiple of 50, which is still considered high for value investors [10]. - The company faces challenges from increasing operating costs due to tariffs and inflation, impacting its low-margin warehouse retail model [11]. Financial Performance and Investor Sentiment - Despite the stock's price dip, Costco's financial results are strong, with trailing-12-month sales up 19% compared to three years ago and FCF nearly tripling [13]. - Supporters of Costco view the current price dip as a buying opportunity, emphasizing the company's resilience in various economic conditions [14].