美联储重启QE？RMP来了！市场想重温“2019年的美好回忆”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program to inject liquidity into the market, following recent volatility in the $12 trillion repurchase market, despite emphasizing that this is not quantitative easing (QE) [1][4][5]. Group 1: RMP Program Details - The New York Fed announced a plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve levels, marking a significant shift in the Fed's balance sheet management strategy [2][3]. - The RMP will adjust its purchasing scale based on expected trends in Fed liabilities and seasonal fluctuations, with the first plan to be published on December 11 [2][4]. - The Fed's statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the need for short-term Treasury purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the Fed's insistence that RMP is not QE, the market has reacted as if it is, with increases in U.S. Treasuries, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. - The liquidity injection is expected to quickly lower the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will respond more slowly, creating significant arbitrage opportunities for investors [5][6]. - Historical context from 2019 suggests that similar liquidity injections led to rapid changes in SOFR, indicating that the current market may experience similar dynamics [6][9]. Group 3: Comparison with Historical Context - The RMP's scale is expected to be lower than in 2019, with anticipated monthly purchases around 0.15% of GDP, compared to 0.2-0.3% during the previous episode [9][10]. - The current liquidity situation is not as severe as in 2019, suggesting that the Fed's response may be less aggressive this time [9][10]. - The mechanism of cash injection leading to rapid SOFR changes while FF lags has been validated in previous instances, indicating a consistent pattern despite the differing contexts [10].