跨年行情布局窗口期显现，关注中证A500ETF（159338）

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI China Index is expected to rebound further, with an estimated increase of approximately 18% by the end of 2026, driven by normalization of valuations and measures to curb overcapacity, while the CSI 300 Index is projected to rise by about 12% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent domestic policy statements have provided support for the market, and the prolonged period of market fluctuations suggests a potential window for cross-year market positioning [1] - Historical data indicates that from 2010 onwards, the cross-year phase typically experiences a rally lasting 1-2 months, with a higher probability of positive returns when indices are at low levels [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows - As the year-end approaches, there is an expectation of increased capital inflow into A-shares, driven by factors such as the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a strong RMB supporting foreign investment in Chinese assets [2] - Domestic regulatory adjustments, including a reduction in risk factors for insurance fund equity investments, are expected to enhance the momentum for insurance capital entering the market [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Since mid-November, the speed of index adjustments has accelerated due to weak economic expectations, changes in overseas liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances, creating a favorable window for cross-year positioning [3] - The low interest rate environment continues to drive household funds towards equity markets, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference may lead to positive policy changes, maintaining a long-term optimistic trend in the market [3]