中国银河证券：二片罐提价预期充分 期待行业价值回归

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin is expected to significantly improve the competitive landscape of the two-piece can industry in China, leading to a more rational market supply-demand relationship and sufficient pricing power for downstream customers, which will drive the industry's profitability recovery. Group 1: Industry Overview - The market size of China's two-piece can industry reached 44.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2018 to 2023, and is projected to reach 77.6 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - The industry's capacity utilization and downstream demand will directly influence the average price trends in the sector [1] - The market concentration is expected to increase, with the top three companies holding over 70% market share post-acquisition, enhancing pricing power and profitability [1] Group 2: Comparison with Overseas Markets - Overseas metal beverage packaging leaders have achieved high market concentration through mergers and acquisitions, resulting in improved profitability and pricing power [2] - For instance, Ball Corporation and Crown Holdings have seen significant increases in gross margins following strategic acquisitions, while domestic leaders like Baosteel Packaging have lower pricing per can compared to their overseas counterparts [2] - The current gross margin for domestic two-piece can businesses is below 10%, indicating substantial room for improvement compared to the 15%-20% range of overseas leaders [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The two-piece can industry has undergone cycles of capacity release, oversupply, and subsequent consolidation, leading to profitability recovery [3] - From 2012 to 2017, the industry faced profit squeezes due to rising raw material costs, followed by a consolidation phase that improved average prices and margins for listed companies [3] - The gross margins for leading companies like Baosteel Packaging and Orijin have declined from 2019 levels, but the acquisition of COFCO is expected to enhance market concentration and pricing power, leading to a recovery in industry average prices [3]