Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-11 02:08Core Insights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by rising imports from Vietnam and India, even as imports from China decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, U.S. smartphone shipments grew by 2% year-on-year, attributed to increased imports from regions outside China [2] - Apple's market share has declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, although the iPhone 16e has shown strong performance, maintaining annual shipment growth [1][3] - Samsung experienced a slight year-on-year increase of 1 basis point, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points, primarily due to strong growth from Google [1][3] - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3, with declines in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter market share, attributed to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung achieved a double-digit year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased shipments of high-end models, raising its market share by 3 basis points to 27% [3] - Motorola has maintained a double-digit market share for five consecutive quarters, driven by competitive pressure in the prepaid market and an early launch of the RAZR 2025 series [3][4] - HMD's exit from the U.S. market creates new opportunities for other smartphone brands to capture market share [4] Group 3: Historical Trends - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments increased by 9% year-on-year, largely due to preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, especially in March [5] - Apple's market share reached a record high of 57% in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of the iPhone 16e and early shipments before April [5] - Samsung's market share fell from 31% in Q1 2024 to 25%, partly due to increased shipments from Apple and weaker performance of the S25 model [5]