A股黑色星期四魔咒再现？明日迎关键一战，三大信号定乾坤！

Group 1 - The A-share market has a historical trend of poor performance on Thursdays, with a 75% probability of decline over the past three months and an average negative return on Thursdays over the last decade [1][3] - The term "Black Thursday" originates from the 1929 Wall Street crash, marking a significant downturn in the market [4] - The T+1 trading system in A-shares creates pressure to liquidate positions on Thursdays for weekend cash withdrawals, contributing to the observed declines [5] Group 2 - Recent data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has only risen 47.8% of the time on Thursdays, with a lower probability for the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indices [3] - On specific Thursdays, such as January 16 and April 23, 2025, the A-share market has defied the "Black Thursday" trend with gains exceeding 2%, often supported by favorable policies or economic data [5] - The market is currently experiencing a divergence in sector performance, with defensive sectors like banking and coal performing well, while high-valuation sectors like semiconductors and securities are seeing significant capital outflows [9][10] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3909 points, facing short-term support at 3910 points and resistance between 3930-3950 points [9] - Recent trading volumes have decreased to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum for a rebound unless volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan [9] - The behavior of northbound capital has been volatile, with a net inflow of over 20 billion yuan in December but recent small outflows, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy signals [16]