美联储宣布降息25个基点，特朗普会选谁当下任美联储主席？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a complex economic situation in the U.S., characterized by high inflation and a weakening job market, leading to a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [1][5]. Economic Context - The current federal funds rate is set between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the sixth rate cut since September of the previous year [1]. - Core PCE inflation remains high at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since November 2021 [1][4]. Political Influence - Former President Trump criticized the Fed for the modest rate cut, suggesting it should have been doubled, reflecting his preference for aggressive monetary easing to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The internal dissent within the Fed was notable, with three members voting against the decision, indicating differing views on the economic outlook [3]. Fed's Stance - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision to cut rates was challenging and aimed at assessing future economic performance, indicating a cautious approach to further easing [3][5]. - Powell directly attributed rising inflation to Trump's tariff policies, highlighting the Fed's effort to maintain its independence from political pressures [4]. Global Economic Impact - The rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, benefiting commodities priced in dollars, and potentially stimulate investment and consumption globally [5]. - However, there are risks associated with rapid rate cuts, including increased inflationary pressures and the potential for asset bubbles [5]. Future Considerations - The ongoing tension between Trump's growth-focused approach and Powell's dual mandate of employment and price stability will continue to influence Fed policy [4][5]. - The selection of the next Fed Chair, as Trump seeks a candidate more aligned with his views on aggressive rate cuts, could have significant implications for U.S. and global monetary policy [4][5].