矿业ETF（561330）涨超1.2%，矿端供应趋紧支撑铜价预期

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing investment value of strategic mineral resources due to heightened global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in terms of security and price elasticity [1] - The long-term allocation logic for copper, aluminum, and gold is clear: copper benefits from tight supply and demand driven by the green economy, with frequent disruptions in global copper supply and a continuous expansion of the supply-demand gap [1] - Aluminum is constrained by a domestic production cap of 45 million tons per year, with risks in overseas supply and a normalization of drought conditions in Yunnan, leading to accelerated industry consolidation and highlighting the scarcity of quality production [1] Group 2 - The demand for metals is driven by explosive growth in the renewable energy sector and resilience in traditional sectors, along with an optimized export structure [1] - Policy and liquidity are resonating, with an increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a weaker dollar alleviating the financial pressure on metal prices, and domestic policies promoting technological upgrades in the industry, which may enhance the market share of leading companies [1] - Gold possesses unique attributes for hedging against risks and inflation, with continued central bank purchases and a growing emphasis on safe-haven demand and scarcity [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and related processing of non-ferrous metals, covering various sectors including copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of China's non-ferrous metal industry and shows a significant correlation with industry cyclicality and fluctuations in commodity prices [1]