国信证券：锡需求预计稳中有升 后续价格有望进一步上行

Core Insights - The global tin mining projects are primarily concentrated in 2027 and beyond, with domestic contributions mainly from Yinman Phase II and overseas from Africa and Europe [1][2] - Global tin production is projected to be 283,000 tons in 2025, 308,000 tons in 2026, and 312,000 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to rise to 386,000 tons, 396,000 tons, and 401,000 tons respectively during the same period [1][3] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, leading to potential price increases due to resource scarcity and rising extraction costs [1][4] Group 1: Tin Resource and Production - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity, characterized by low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications [1] - As of the end of 2024, global tin resources are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons, and the global reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from approximately 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024 [1] - The distribution of global tin resources is concentrated in a few countries, with China, Myanmar, Australia, Russia, Brazil, and Bolivia holding 76.5% of the total reserves [1] Group 2: Supply Challenges - Global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons, but declining ore grades and various unforeseen factors have led to a decrease in supply [2] - China's tin production has been declining since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations, while Indonesia faces challenges from declining ore grades and increased mining costs [2] - Myanmar's tin production has been affected by systematic declines in ore grades and production halts due to local conflicts, with a significant impact on global supply [2] Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The semiconductor sector continues to show growth, positively impacting tin demand, with refined tin demand from solder applications exceeding 50% [3] - The demand for tin in chemical applications and tinplate is also expected to grow, with PVC production in China projected to increase [3] - Overall, global tin demand is expected to rise steadily, with projections of 386,000 tons in 2025, 396,000 tons in 2026, and 401,000 tons in 2027 [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - A refined tin supply gap of approximately 16,000 tons is expected in 2025, which may narrow in subsequent years as Myanmar resumes production and new projects come online [4] - The ongoing decline in ore grades and relatively low capital expenditures are likely to exacerbate resource scarcity, leading to further price increases [4]