国信证券：制冷剂年底配额调整幅度较小 看好制冷剂产品长期景气度向上

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, with expectations for continued demand and price increases for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125, as well as a positive outlook for the liquid cooling industry’s demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - On December 9, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the public disclosure of the 2026 quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons, accepting applications from 38 companies for second-generation refrigerant quotas and 65 companies for third-generation refrigerant quotas [2][4]. - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants will be reduced by 71.5% and the usage quota by 76.1% compared to baseline values, with R22 production quota reduced by 3005 tons and R141b quota eliminated [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a quotas increasing, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea quotas decreasing [2][7]. - The flexibility in production adjustments for companies is enhanced, allowing them to submit quota adjustment applications under certain conditions, which is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for third-generation refrigerants [3][7]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, well-equipped infrastructure, advanced technology, and leading refrigerant quotas, with specific companies mentioned including Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. [3][8].