Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-12-11 04:04Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a gradual recovery in demand, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow and international markets benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion, leading to optimistic growth in demand and price trends [1][5]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Global aviation industry growth is slowing, with IATA predicting a 5.8% year-on-year increase in global RPK for 2025, and the Asia-Pacific region leading at 9% [1]. - The average global passenger load factor is expected to reach a record high of 84%, with an estimated EBIT margin of 6.7%, a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with international routes recovering faster than domestic ones [2]. Group 2: 2026 Aviation Outlook - Supply-side growth is expected to remain low in 2026, with a record backlog of 17,000 aircraft orders, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels [3][4]. - The utilization rate of aircraft has reached peak levels, limiting the availability of operational aircraft [4]. - Demand for international travel is anticipated to remain strong, driven by visa-free policies and a recovery in business travel [5]. Group 3: Pricing and Capacity - The passenger load factor is nearing its upper limit, which may reduce the willingness of airlines to engage in price wars, supporting a trend of price increases [6]. - The average passenger load factor for the industry is projected to improve, with expectations of continued upward pressure on ticket prices due to reduced competition [6].