美联储再度降息，全球大放水已经来了！但川普并不满意

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates again in December due to deteriorating employment data and persistent inflation concerns, indicating a potential risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The primary indicators influencing the Fed's decision on interest rates are employment and inflation. Recent U.S. employment data showed a significant decline, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, suggesting a weakening job market [2][4]. - The U.S. national debt is approaching $37 trillion, and a 2% reduction in interest rates could save approximately $750 billion annually in interest payments, highlighting the urgency for rate cuts to manage debt [9][11]. Group 2: Implications of Rate Cuts - A series of rate cuts is anticipated, with Morgan Stanley predicting up to seven cuts by 2026, which could alleviate the debt burden significantly [5][11]. - The potential for a weaker dollar due to rate cuts could lead to capital outflows from the U.S. to other markets, particularly benefiting China, which is becoming increasingly attractive to foreign investors [4][12]. Group 3: Asset Class Reactions - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to negatively impact low-risk, high-yield assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and savings products, as the attractiveness of these investments diminishes with falling interest rates [23][24]. - Conversely, commodities like gold, silver, and other raw materials are likely to see price increases as the dollar weakens, creating investment opportunities in these asset classes [22]. Group 4: China's Economic Context - As the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, China may also follow suit to stimulate its economy, particularly in light of its struggling real estate market and the need for lower borrowing costs [26][27]. - The current economic environment presents a critical opportunity for China to lower interest rates, which could further support its economic recovery while also impacting domestic savings and investment strategies [25][27].