在连续三次降息后，美联储释放强烈信号短期或不再行动

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%-3.75%, while strongly indicating a likely pause in future rate cuts [1] Group 1: Rate Decision and Economic Outlook - This marks the third rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, aligning with expectations amid signs of a slowdown in the labor market [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, while the labor market is showing signs of weakness, presenting a challenging situation [1] - The dot plot suggests only one rate cut is expected next year, with a wide range of predictions among the 19 participants [1][2] Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Future Actions - There are indications of greater internal disagreement within the Fed than reflected in the FOMC voting results, with some members favoring a pause in rate changes [2] - Analysts predict that the Fed may remain inactive until the new chair takes office in May 2026, allowing time to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4] Group 3: Economic Projections and Inflation - The Fed raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3%, citing resilient consumer spending and strong AI-related investments [6] - The Fed expects inflation to remain above the 2% target until 2028, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts [6] Group 4: Market Liquidity and Asset Purchases - The Fed announced a short-term Treasury purchase plan starting December 12, with an initial purchase of approximately $40 billion, marking a return to asset buying after three years [7] - This action is aimed at alleviating pressures in the repurchase market and is not considered a conventional monetary policy tool [7][8] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from $9 trillion in 2022 to about $6.6 trillion, but recent liquidity strains have prompted a shift in strategy [8]