6年来最分裂的利率决议！美联储降息靴子落地，明年降息大戏更刺激？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision resulted in a 25 basis point cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] - This decision marks the largest internal division within the Federal Reserve since 2019, with 9 out of 12 members supporting the rate cut and 3 opposing it [5][7] - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump, who has consistently argued that high interest rates hinder economic growth, has influenced some Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more dovish stance [3][8] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals indicate a weakening job market, with a slowdown in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate, leading to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to initiate a $40 billion short-term U.S. Treasury purchase program aims to maintain adequate reserve supply and enhance liquidity in the market [4] - The divergence among Federal Reserve officials reflects differing assessments of the economic situation, with some advocating for rate cuts to alleviate corporate financing costs and employment pressures, while others are concerned about inflation risks [8][9] Group 3 - The impact of the rate cut on the U.S. economy is viewed as potentially limited, as some market participants believe the current rate remains relatively high and the cut may not effectively stimulate the economy [11] - The ongoing transformation driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is also affecting the U.S. job market, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to guide the economy through monetary policy [12] - The anticipated effects of the rate cut on global markets may be diluted by ongoing trade tensions, which remain a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy [13] Group 4 - Market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts are varied, with some analysts suggesting only one cut in the first half of the next year, while others foresee a more aggressive approach later in the year [15] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair favored by Trump could lead to a faster pace of rate cuts, although concerns about inflation could arise if aggressive cuts are implemented [15] - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to remain around 2%, falling short of Trump's target of 3%, indicating a relatively subdued economic environment [15]