日本央行前高管：日本可能到2027年加息四次

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to enter a more aggressive tightening phase, with potential interest rate hikes anticipated before 2027, including three additional hikes following the expected increase next week [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Hideo Hayakawa predicts that the Bank of Japan will return to a rhythm of raising interest rates approximately every six months, targeting a final rate of around 1.5%, indicating three more hikes after the anticipated increase [2]. - The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 0.75% during the meeting on December 19, marking the first rate hike since January [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Risks - Hayakawa warns that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policy could compel the Bank of Japan to accelerate rate hikes and raise the final interest rate level [4]. - The economic stimulus plan introduced by Kishida last month exceeded economists' expectations, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: External Variables Impacting Policy - Hayakawa notes that the decision to delay rate hikes should not be criticized, as the Bank of Japan must consider uncertainties such as Trump's tariff measures and the timing of Kishida's premiership [3]. - There is a viewpoint suggesting that waiting until January for further data on wage growth would be more reasonable, yet the current stance of Governor Ueda indicates a clear inclination towards rate hikes [3].