小摩：降华晨中国评级至“中性” 料日后股息回落

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the profit forecasts for Brilliance China (01114) for 2025 and 2026 by 11% and 4% respectively, and reduced the target price from HKD 4.7 to HKD 4.1, advising investors to lock in profits and changing the rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" [1] - The estimated cash balance on Brilliance China's balance sheet by the end of this year is approximately HKD 1 to 1.5 per share, along with an expected earnings forecast of RMB 0.64 per share and a dividend payout ratio of 50%, suggesting that the dividend for the first half of 2026 could range from HKD 0.35 to 0.9 (including special dividends), indicating a dividend yield of about 8% to 21% [1] - Despite the attractive dividend level, it is believed that the subsequent dividend amounts may decline rapidly due to the company's cash levels being less abundant than before, and the profitability of the Brilliance BMW joint venture in the Chinese market may continue to face challenges [1]