Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing unprecedented supply-demand tension, with DRAM shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 and NAND shortages until Q3 2026, driven by a significant increase in demand, particularly from AI servers [1][2][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - DRAM demand is projected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth of 18.6% [2]. - The supply of DDR contracts is expected to rise by 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2023, with NAND prices increasing by 20% [1]. - Customers are actively securing long-term supply agreements, with major cloud service providers extending pre-purchase orders to 2028 [1][7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The current price increases are attributed to genuine demand rather than speculative hoarding, as inventory levels remain low across various customer segments [7]. - Server DDR inventory is approximately 11 weeks, while PC and mobile DRAM inventories are around 9 weeks, and SSD inventories are at 8 weeks [7]. - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to see a 59.9% year-over-year increase in demand by 2026, reaching 276.7 billion Gb [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is anticipated to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, expected to capture about 70% of the market share [9]. - UBS has raised target prices for major storage manufacturers, including SK Hynix and Samsung, reflecting positive market sentiment [9].
史上最强存储上涨周期？瑞银：预计DDR季度环比上涨35%，NAND短缺至少到明年Q3
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-11 05:56