香港住宅为何升势不减？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market has shown signs of recovery after three years of decline, with residential prices increasing by 3.3% from March to October 2025, indicating a bottoming out and gradual recovery from the consolidation period [2][4]. Market Performance - The number of residential transactions in Hong Kong has been robust, with over 50,000 contracts recorded for nine consecutive months, and an estimated total of 62,000 transactions for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17% [2][3]. - The total value of residential transactions is projected to reach around HKD 497 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [3]. Price Trends - The overall residential price index in Hong Kong has shown a 1.8% increase since the beginning of the year, with specific segments like small and mid-range apartments experiencing price increases of 2.9% and 6.1% respectively [4][6]. - The average price of a Class A unit has risen from HKD 4.67 million in January to HKD 4.89 million in September, marking a nearly 5% increase [4]. Influencing Factors - The recovery in the real estate market is attributed to several favorable factors, including lower interest rates following the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, which have reduced entry barriers and borrowing costs for homebuyers [5][7]. - The Hong Kong government’s increase of the stamp duty threshold from HKD 1 million to HKD 4 million has led to a significant rise in transactions for properties below this price point, with a 20% increase in transactions for properties priced under HKD 4 million compared to the previous year [5][6]. Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that residential prices in Hong Kong could rise by approximately 5% in 2026, with a return to normal supply levels expected by the end of next year [6][8]. - The ongoing "de-inventory" trend, with new supply decreasing from 23,000 units to around 20,000 units, is expected to alleviate pressure on developers and pricing strategies [8].