中泰国际李迅雷：破局之道在于供需再平衡与服务业突破

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth of listed companies in China has shown a 5.2% increase in profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive shift amidst ongoing economic transformation [1][2]. Economic Transition - The year 2021 marked a significant turning point in China's economic growth model, with average profits of listed companies starting to decline post-2021, reflecting deep structural adjustments in the economy [2]. - The current economic transition is characterized by a shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of growth quality and sustainability [2][7]. Supply and Demand Structure - China's manufacturing sector accounts for one-third of global manufacturing value added and over 40% of global capacity, indicating a need for further optimization of production capacity [3]. - The potential for expanding consumer demand is significant, with household savings exceeding 160 trillion yuan, highlighting the need to convert savings into consumption through income distribution reforms and improved consumption environments [3]. Service Industry Development - The service sector has been rapidly growing, with employment in the tertiary sector reaching 47% by 2022, narrowing the gap with its GDP contribution of 52.8% [5]. - There is considerable potential for high-end consumption, and expanding the service sector can create more high-quality jobs, which is essential for increasing labor income and promoting synchronized growth of resident income and the economy [5]. Policy Recommendations - The company advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, suggesting that the government has significant leverage capacity due to its vast asset base [6]. - Monetary policy should focus on reducing mortgage rates to alleviate household burdens and stimulate consumption, with the average mortgage rate in September being 3.06%, down by 25 basis points year-on-year [6]. - The importance of stabilizing market expectations is emphasized, with recommendations for diverse measures to maintain market confidence and support consumer spending through direct subsidies and other initiatives [6].