如何影响人民币、股市、金价？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The recent meeting revealed significant internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 9 members supporting the 25 basis point cut and 3 opposing it, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since September 2019 [3]. - The Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while maintaining price stability is increasingly challenged, as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth and rising unemployment [3][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged ongoing inflation pressures due to recent tariff adjustments, describing them as a "one-time shock," while emphasizing that monetary policy does not have a preset path [4]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest two additional rate cuts in 2026, but the distribution of forecasts among Fed officials is highly varied, indicating uncertainty about future monetary policy [6][8]. - Analysts predict that the first half of 2026 may see concentrated rate cuts due to persistent labor market weakness, while the second half could enter a "wait-and-see" phase as economic conditions stabilize [6][8]. - The upcoming change in Fed leadership and the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 are significant variables that could influence future monetary policy decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets - The Fed's rate cut is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lower costs for overseas education, shopping, and travel for consumers [10]. - Lower U.S. Treasury yields resulting from the rate cut may enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing capital inflows into emerging markets [10][11]. - The Fed's actions provide a favorable window for China's monetary policy to be more autonomous, with expectations of a resilient yuan and positive performance in Chinese assets amid a backdrop of moderate U.S. dollar liquidity [11][12].