Insperity, Inc. (NSP): A Bull Case Theory

Company Overview - Insperity, Inc. is a leading provider of HR outsourcing solutions for small and medium-sized businesses, offering payroll, benefits administration, and a full suite of HR services through its Professional Employer Organization (PEO) model [2] - The company has a 20-year track record of extraordinary organic growth, with sales and EPS expanding at 12% and 21% annually, respectively [3] Financial Performance - As of December 2nd, Insperity's share was trading at $34.63, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 73.58 and 10.91, respectively [1] - Free cash flow consistently exceeds net income, and all excess capital is returned to shareholders, resulting in high ROIC and ROE [3] - Recent earnings have been depressed by temporary headwinds, including costs related to the new Workday partnership, elevated healthcare expenses, and slower SMB hiring [4] Growth Potential - Adjusting for recent headwinds, Insperity trades at roughly 10x normalized earnings versus a historical median of 29x, creating a compelling entry point [4] - The Workday partnership is expected to be transformative, improving client retention, enabling sales to larger mid-market clients, and modernizing Insperity's technology offering [5] - The PEO industry is underpenetrated and expected to grow roughly twice nominal GDP, providing Insperity with a runway for continued organic expansion [5] Competitive Advantages - Insperity's business is highly resilient due to durable moats from switching costs, scale, and service quality [6] - The combination of normalized earnings power, potential upside from the Workday partnership, and strategic optionality creates a favorable risk/reward profile [6] - Insperity's high cash generation, strong client relationships, and disciplined management incentives further support an attractive investment case [6]