【财经分析】12月利率大概率按兵不动 欧洲央行政策转向仍需观察窗口

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming December meeting, despite facing pressures from weak external demand and cautious business investment in the Eurozone. Inflation has significantly decreased from earlier highs to 2.2% in November, indicating a cooling trend in core prices and a temporary improvement in economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and ECB's Position - The Eurozone economy has shown unexpected resilience, with GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2% due to increased investment in the digital services sector [2]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the current monetary policy is appropriately positioned, and there is no immediate need to adjust key interest rates [2]. - The Eurozone's inflation rate for November was reported at 2.2%, slightly up from 2.1% in October, marking the third consecutive month above the ECB's 2% target [2]. Group 2: External Influences and Currency Dynamics - The strong Euro, alongside potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, may impact the ECB's interest rate decisions. The Euro has been fluctuating between 1.15 and 1.17 against the US dollar [3]. - A strong Euro makes imports cheaper, which can help lower internal price levels in the Eurozone, supporting domestic consumption amid moderate inflation and ongoing economic recovery [3]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the Eurozone's trade deficit with China, which reached €33 billion in September, potentially exerting deflationary pressure and negatively affecting export competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Considerations - Analysts suggest that the ECB may prioritize overall economic stability and inflation control over the risks posed by weak exports, as the contribution of exports to economic growth is currently moderate [4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75% may influence the Euro's trajectory and, consequently, the ECB's policy decisions [4]. - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may implement a series of rate cuts in the coming year, which could weaken the dollar and subsequently strengthen the Euro [5].