内存短缺潮、光电子加速渗透、边缘AI回归......德银总结2026年六大科技硬件交易主题

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank's report on the European technology hardware industry for 2026 identifies six major themes: memory shortages, AI squeezing mainstream components, accelerated penetration of optoelectronics, upgrades in advanced packaging, transformation of 800V power architecture, and the resurgence of edge AI growth [1] Memory Shortage and WFE Spending - The memory shortage has escalated from a component risk to a macro concern, with DRAM spot prices surging by 300-400% and NAND flash prices increasing by 200% over the past three months [2] - The contract prices are also rising rapidly, with expectations of a further 30-50% increase in DRAM and NAND contract prices in the first half of 2026 as channel inventories deplete [2] - This shortage is projected to persist until 2027, driving unexpected growth in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending, particularly benefiting DRAM-related equipment companies [2] AI Spending and Component Pressure - The explosive growth in AI spending is intensifying supply constraints for key components, impacting low to mid-range smartphones and PCs [3] - Companies like Realme may need to raise smartphone prices by 20-30% due to rising memory costs, while Dell's COO noted unprecedented cost increases [3] - The automotive sector is less affected due to independent production lines, but network equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson may face component supply pressures [3] Optoelectronics and Data Centers - The demand for bandwidth in AI data centers is driving optoelectronics and photonics technologies to become core growth engines [4] - AI data centers are expected to transition to high-speed pluggable optical modules and linear pluggable optics (LPO) to achieve lower power consumption and latency [4] - Companies like Tower Semi plan to significantly increase silicon photonics production capacity, targeting $900 million in sales by 2026 [4] Testing and Advanced Packaging - The complexity of AI accelerators is increasing, making testing and advanced packaging critical growth points in the semiconductor supply chain [7] - TSMC plans to expand AI testing capacity at an 80% CAGR from 2022 to 2026, while OSATs are also ramping up production to alleviate capacity constraints [7] - The transition to 3D packaging is underway, with Apple planning to adopt TSMC's 3D packaging solution in high-end laptops by 2026 [7] 800V Power Architecture Transformation - NVIDIA is leading the shift from 48V to 800V power architecture in AI data centers, presenting opportunities for gallium nitride (GaN) devices [8] - The 800V architecture improves efficiency and reduces copper cable usage, with significant market potential for GaN and silicon carbide (SiC) technologies [8] - The AI processor power consumption is expected to rise from 7GW in 2023 to 70GW by 2030, creating a substantial market for power semiconductors [8] Edge AI Growth - Edge AI is anticipated to experience moderate growth in 2026, emerging as a significant new growth point in the technology hardware industry [10] - Applications in automotive ADAS, video surveillance, and industrial control are becoming core use cases for edge AI [10] - The market for edge AI devices is projected to reach $103 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 21% from 2025 to 2030 [11]