2026年宏观经济展望：“修复式”增长与“再平衡”

Global Economic Outlook - The year 2026 is projected to be a transition year from "high volatility" to "weak stability" in the global macro landscape, with a growth target anchored around 5%, but actual growth may moderate to 4.5%-4.7% [1] - Inflation is expected to rise from the bottom but remain in the 0%-1% range, indicating a mild increase [1] - The policy focus is shifting from "supply-side challenges" to "demand-side rebalancing" [1] - The negative impact of real estate on GDP is expected to decrease from -1.5 to -2 percentage points in 2025 to -0.5 to -1 percentage points in 2026, reflecting a consensus expectation of diminishing macroeconomic headwinds [1] External Influences on Domestic Demand - Three external factors are identified as key determinants of China's real estate and domestic demand: 1. A decline in high U.S. dollar interest rates, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates four times to 2.75%-3% by the end of 2026, reducing depreciation pressure on the RMB [2] 2. Marginal expansion of Chinese fiscal policy, with 1.5 trillion yuan in special bond quotas for 2026, including 300 billion yuan for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] 3. Deepening negative population growth, with China's total population entering a negative growth phase of -1.5‰ annually, leading to a continued decline in "just demand" and extended "L-shaped" tail in real estate sales [2] Economic Growth Dynamics - The contribution of net exports to GDP, which was a significant growth driver in 2025, is expected to decline in 2026, with export growth projected to fall from 4%-5% to around 3% [4] - The focus will shift back to "internal demand rebalancing" as the primary growth driver [4] Consumption and Investment Projections - Consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.7%-4.8% in 2026, driven by policies such as a 300 billion yuan trade-in program and new initiatives for childcare subsidies and free preschool education [5] - Investment in infrastructure is projected to increase, with growth rates for infrastructure investment expected to rise from 3.5% in 2025 to 5%-6% in 2026, while manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover slightly to around 5% [6] - The decline in real estate development investment is expected to narrow from -10% in 2025 to around -5% in 2026, improving its negative impact on GDP [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - A mild re-inflation is anticipated, with CPI expected to rise to a range of 0.4%-0.6% due to factors such as the pig cycle and structural supply constraints [7] - The PPI decline is expected to narrow from -2% in 2025 to around -1% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth projected to increase from 4% to 4.5%-4.8% [7] Policy Adjustments - The policy framework is shifting towards "explicit fiscal expansion" and "implicit monetary easing," with a sustained deficit rate of 4% and an increase in special government bond quotas [9] - Structural credit easing is emphasized, with targeted support for key sectors such as technology and urban renewal, while maintaining low interest rates [9] Structural Opportunities Amidst Economic Adjustment - The focus for 2026 is on "repair-type growth," characterized by moderate overall growth but ongoing structural benefits, with traditional sectors like real estate losing momentum while new sectors like technology and services gain traction [10] - The macroeconomic risks are expected to decrease, while structural opportunities are anticipated to increase, suggesting a period of relative stability and potential for investment [10]