21对话｜丹尼尔·耶金谈油价走势：既供应过剩，也风险过剩

Core Insights - The global energy system is transitioning from "supply surplus" to "risk surplus," with geopolitical factors becoming the core variable affecting energy prices [3] - China's oil demand is entering a critical "platform period," marking a significant turning point in the global oil market, as it has contributed to half of the global oil demand increase over the past 20 years, but is now stabilizing [3] - The current global oil market is characterized by a supply surplus, reflected in oil prices ranging from $50 to $60, and it may take one to two years for the market to rebalance [3] Group 1 - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the situation in Venezuela, sanctions on Russia, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could change market dynamics at any time [3] - Three major trends are expected to drive long-term changes in the energy landscape by 2060: the expansion of renewable energy, a return to nuclear energy, and the continued demand growth for oil and gas alongside a significant upstream investment gap [3] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is anticipated to profoundly change the energy system, increasing electricity demand and reshaping the operational models of energy companies [3] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that approximately $540 billion annually will be needed for exploration and development to maintain current oil and gas production levels by 2050 [4] - Some companies are retreating from overly rapid transitions to renewable energy and are showing renewed interest in oil and gas exploration while continuing to explore diversified technological routes [4] - The importance of mineral resources, particularly copper, is rapidly increasing, as key minerals will play a central role in the global electrification process [4] Group 3 - China is recognized as a leader in green energy technologies such as solar and batteries, maintaining a dominant position in the global clean energy supply chain despite trade frictions [4] - China's strategy focuses more on energy security and supply diversification, while policies like the promotion of electric vehicles are changing the demand structure and influencing the global energy market [4]