dbg盾博：美联储重启RMP，400亿美元月购计划能否复制2019年？

Core Viewpoint - The New York Fed is set to release its first "Reserve Management Purchase" (RMP) detail on December 11, with bond purchases commencing the following day, signaling a liquidity influx despite assurances from Powell that this is not quantitative easing [3]. Group 1: RMP Overview - The current RMP is characterized as "preventive maintenance" rather than an emergency response, aimed at preparing for a seasonal surge in non-reserve liabilities expected in April, which could impact the $12 trillion repo market [3]. - The Fed plans to initially purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills over the next month, with the possibility of extending the duration to three years and adjusting monthly purchase amounts based on liability fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, markets have reacted positively, with U.S. Treasuries, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil all rising, while the dollar has weakened, indicating a liquidity feast [3]. - Bank of America estimates that the current "fill" gap from RMP will last approximately six months, with monthly purchases equating to 0.15% of GDP, lower than the 0.3% seen in 2019, but still expected to influence overnight financing rates [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical data shows that after the RMP was implemented in October 2019, the SOFR/FF spread increased from -21 basis points to -3 basis points within 20 trading days, suggesting a rapid market adjustment [4]. - Current market conditions resemble those of 2019, with leveraged funds positioning themselves in short-term Treasury futures and money market funds lowering repo quotes to secure bonds [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The total reserves in banks remain ample, with ONRRP balances providing a $350 billion buffer, indicating that the current liquidity levels will not overwhelm the short end of the market immediately [5]. - Traders are betting that if monthly purchases rise to $60 billion, SOFR could drop below 4%, creating a significant gap with the 5.25% FF target, potentially leading to a liquidity surge [5].