国际机构纷纷上调中国经济增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, indicating strong resilience and vitality in the Chinese economy despite external challenges [1][3]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The World Bank has increased its economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points for this year, while the IMF has also raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5% [1][3]. - Multiple international organizations, including the Asian Development Bank and the OECD, have similarly upgraded their growth expectations for China this year [3]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with an expected total economic output of 140 trillion yuan for the year, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest economy [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [5]. - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.59 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a 4.5% year-on-year increase, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth [5]. Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.4% from January to November, indicating robust export performance [7]. - The adaptability of Chinese enterprises and supply chains has been highlighted as a key factor in maintaining strong export growth, with a diversification of export destinations and an increase in high-quality product exports [9]. Trade and Global Economic Stability - China is committed to maintaining a multilateral trade system, providing certainty and stability in global trade amidst challenges such as tariff uncertainties and trade barriers [11]. - The UN Conference on Trade and Development noted that over 70% of global trade still operates under WTO rules, emphasizing China's role in leading development among global south countries [11][13].