华尔街点评甲骨文财报：看似超预期，实则利润“虚胖”，投资逻辑已从“看订单”转向“看兑现”

Core Insights - Oracle's stock plummeted over 10% after the earnings report, prompting several investment banks to lower target prices or reassess their ratings [1] - Concerns have shifted from order growth to conversion efficiency, with a significant increase in RPO but doubts about sustainable profit generation [2][6] - The discrepancy between strong EPS and weak core profitability raises questions about the underlying business health [3][4] Financial Performance - Oracle reported a record RPO of $523 billion, with new orders increasing by $67.7 billion, driven by AI-related purchases from major companies like Meta and Nvidia [2] - Total revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, but cloud infrastructure revenue of $4.079 billion fell short of market expectations [2][3] - Non-GAAP EPS reached $2.26, significantly exceeding the expected $1.65, primarily due to $2.7 billion in non-recurring gains from the sale of Ampere shares [3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures surged to $12 billion, a 200% increase year-over-year, leading to negative free cash flow of -$10 billion [3][4] - Management raised the capital expenditure target for FY2026 to $50 billion, which is 75% of the expected annual revenue, indicating a mismatch between high investment and slow revenue conversion [3][4] Market Reactions and Valuation Adjustments - Investment banks have collectively downgraded target prices, reflecting a shift in valuation logic from premium based on order potential to discount due to realization risks [6][7] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating but lowered the target price from $380 to $325, while Bank of America also retained its "Buy" rating with a target price cut from $368 to $300 [6][7] - Morgan Stanley has placed its rating and target price under review, expressing concerns over order conversion and margin trends [6][7] Future Outlook - UBS and Bank of America remain optimistic about the long-term potential of Oracle's $523 billion RPO, anticipating recovery as OCI growth accelerates [6][7] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the need for clearer signals of revenue growth, stable margins, and positive cash flow to rebuild confidence in Oracle's AI business profitability [7]