广州期货：美联储议息会议在即 沪金高位震荡待破局

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which could impact gold prices and the broader economic outlook [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 88.4%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is 11.6% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and potential successors are being discussed, including Kevin Hassett, who may favor aggressive rate cuts [2] - The market is concerned that a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve could increase the influence of the Trump administration, potentially undermining the Fed's independence [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November is at 48.2%, below expectations, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - Conversely, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.6%, the highest in nine months, suggesting improvement in the services sector [3] - The ADP report shows a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks globally continue to increase gold reserves, with a net addition of 53.9 tons in October, highlighting gold's role as a strategic reserve asset [2] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,305.39 tons as of the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases [2] - The long-term demand for gold is supported by geopolitical uncertainties, rising debt pressures, and the trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [3]