盘中突然拉升 碳酸锂交易逻辑有变？

Group 1: Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures experienced fluctuations, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% [1] - Analysts believe that the current high price of lithium carbonate futures is supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals, maintaining a tight balance in the market [1][2] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase due to new projects coming online, with a significant year-on-year production growth of 49% reported in November [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The inventory of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, with 730,000 units reported by the China Passenger Car Association at the end of October, reflecting a rise of 110,000 units [2] - In November, domestic production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.757 million units, with wholesale sales at 1.706 million units, indicating a buildup of inventory [2] - Although lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, the rate of reduction has slowed, with a weekly inventory of approximately 114,000 tons reported as of December 4, down by about 2,366 tons [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts highlight that the main market concern is the recovery progress of leading manufacturers and the sustainability of demand during the off-season [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of operations at the Ningde Times lithium mine is a key focus, as its recovery could impact supply dynamics [3] - Analysts suggest that if the lithium mine resumes operations, there may be a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance in December, potentially exerting downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3]