期锌沪伦比值走弱引发蝴蝶效应 弱势状态会延续吗？

Core Viewpoint - The global zinc mine supply has improved significantly this year, leading to a downward trend in zinc prices. However, the Shanghai zinc market has shown strong support around the 21,000 level, with prices rebounding to an eight-month high, contrary to expectations [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Shanghai-London zinc price ratio has weakened from nearly 8.7 in early April to around 7.26 by the end of October, reflecting a deepening disparity between domestic and international zinc production [3]. - Domestic smelting costs are relatively low, leading to increased production and refined zinc output, while overseas smelting plants face high energy costs and some have reduced output due to losses [5]. - LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly from 234,000 tons at the beginning of the year to around 35,000 tons by the end of October, indicating strong support for LME zinc prices [5]. Import and Export Trends - The weakening Shanghai-London price ratio has resulted in unprofitable conditions for both refined zinc and zinc concentrate imports, limiting import momentum and opening export windows for domestic producers [8]. - The tightening supply of both imported and domestic zinc concentrates is expected to increase domestic demand for local zinc mines, especially as northern weather turns cold and some mines enter seasonal shutdowns [8]. Production and Inventory Insights - The decline in processing fees for both domestic and international zinc concentrates has reduced the profitability of refining zinc, leading to decreased production enthusiasm among smelting plants [9]. - China's refined zinc output in October did not meet expectations, and a decrease in November is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and inventory pressures [9]. - Despite weak demand, the reduction in refined zinc output has alleviated supply pressure, with weekly inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreasing by around 10,000 tons [9]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the significant decline in zinc processing fees is expected to limit domestic smelting output, providing some support for zinc prices [10]. - The LME zinc inventory is showing signs of recovery, but the current market remains tight, suggesting that the low Shanghai-London price ratio may continue [10]. - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, an increase in long-term processing fees for zinc concentrates may boost production capacity for both domestic and international smelting plants, potentially leading to a recovery in the Shanghai-London price ratio [10].