年内涨超112％！白银成年内最牛期货，法巴银行看涨至100美元

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market has shown a strong upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of over 112%, significantly outperforming gold and other precious metals, driven by supply constraints and monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve [3][4][9]. Group 1: Silver Market Performance - As of December 11, New York silver futures reached a high of $63.25 per ounce, closing at $62.355, marking a daily increase of $1.326 or 2.17% [3]. - The year-to-date increase in silver futures has surpassed 112%, while gold has seen around a 60% increase, and platinum and palladium have increased by 84.30% and 64.26%, respectively [3][4]. - The domestic silver futures market has also seen a significant rise, with a 92.43% increase since the beginning of the year [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association projects a global silver demand of at least 35,000 tons by 2025, with 80% attributed to industrial use, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [9]. - A supply deficit of over 6,000 tons is anticipated due to production constraints, as the total silver supply is estimated at 29,000 tons [9]. - The ongoing demand from the photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and data center sectors is expected to sustain silver demand growth, while supply remains limited [9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to a decrease in the dollar index and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which supports the holding costs for gold and silver [6][7]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts have been noted, with some officials advocating for significant cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [7][8]. - The Fed's economic forecasts indicate a more positive outlook compared to previous predictions, suggesting that the necessity for substantial rate cuts may be lower [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The participation in silver trading has diversified, with both individual and institutional investors actively involved, although individual investors tend to enter the market later than institutions [4]. - The iShares Silver Trust has seen significant inflows, with approximately $1 billion entering the ETF recently, surpassing inflows into the largest gold fund [9]. - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise, with some forecasts suggesting a potential price of $100 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by strong industrial demand and tight supply [11].