UltimaMarkets：美联储鹰派降息中带有鸽派基调：美元面临压力

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75% reflects a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market focus shifting to the Fed's statements and 2026 forecasts [1][2]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The December decision illustrates a "hawkish cut," with a median forecast indicating only one rate cut in 2026, which is below market expectations, highlighting ongoing inflation concerns [2][3]. - There is a notable voting divergence among Fed officials, with 9 supporting the cut, 2 maintaining the status quo, and 1 advocating for a 50 basis point reduction, indicating internal debates on the easing path [2][3]. - Despite the hawkish tone of the dot plot, Chairman Powell's press conference and the December Economic Projections Summary (SEP) conveyed a more dovish sentiment [4]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized a flexible and data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments, with no anticipated rate hikes, supporting a dovish stance [5]. - Signs of a slowing labor market support the current easing position, and the Fed remains open to further easing if inflation or labor conditions necessitate it [6][7]. - The December SEP suggests a potential dovish bias, with core PCE inflation expected to decline to 2.5% and overall PCE inflation projected at 2.4% by 2026 [7]. Market Impact - The dovish tone from the Fed has suppressed earlier hawkish speculation, putting downward pressure on the US dollar [10][15]. - The USD has broken key support levels, indicating a potential new downtrend, with the dovish stance suggesting continued downside risks and short-term rebounds providing selling opportunities [13][15]. Canadian Central Bank Insights - The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its interest rate, indicating that the current rate is "generally appropriate" to keep inflation near the 2% target while supporting economic adjustments [13][14]. - The BoC's forward guidance suggests limited room for further rate cuts if inflation and economic activity align with October's forecasts, interpreted as slightly hawkish [14]. - The BoC's pause in policy adjustments strengthens the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, with market expectations shifting towards stability rather than further easing [14][16].