2025以旧换新即将收官，家电业亟待跳出“价格战”

Core Insights - The 2025 final round of e-commerce promotions has begun with the "Double Twelve" event, marking the last consumer opportunity before the end of the old-for-new policy [1] - The demand for home appliances has largely been exhausted this year, leading to a potential market adjustment period from the end of this year to the first half of next year [1][2] - The overall sales performance during the "Double Eleven" event was notably poor, with significant declines in retail sales across major appliance categories [2][3] Market Demand and Sales Performance - The "Double Eleven" sales period saw a marked decline in retail sales for major appliances, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing drops of 33.9%, 26.4%, and 22.1% respectively [2] - Emerging categories like robotic vacuum cleaners also faced declines, with sales volume down 24.4% and revenue down 25.8% compared to the previous year [3] - The overall market demand for durable consumer goods like home appliances has been fully released, leading to a cyclical downturn in sales [3] Competitive Landscape and Pricing Strategies - The pressure on sales may lead to increased competition, with companies likely to lower production rates and engage in price wars, particularly among mid-to-low-end brands [4][6] - The average retail price for air conditioners increased slightly during the "Double Eleven" period, indicating a shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers [5] - The market is experiencing a polarization trend, where high-end products are seeing consumer willingness to pay a premium, while mid-to-low-end products are competing heavily on price [4] Policy and Industry Trends - The government has accelerated the distribution of 690 billion yuan in subsidies for the old-for-new policy, which is set to end on December 31, 2025 [1][8] - The policy aims to enhance product quality and safety while promoting industry upgrades, although some goals have not been fully realized [7][8] - The upcoming end of the old-for-new policy is expected to exert pressure on both demand and supply, with production rates for home appliances projected to decline significantly in December [8] Future Outlook - The current market adjustments may provide an opportunity for companies to differentiate themselves and eliminate outdated production capacities [9] - Long-term growth will depend on the ability to stimulate consumer demand and transition from a subsidy-driven market to one driven by inherent consumer needs [9][10] - Companies are encouraged to shift from price competition to value-based strategies, focusing on enhancing customer experience and product offerings [11][12]